Saturday, September 24, 2011

Why the current qualification system of UEFA for big tournaments needs to be modified.

Excitement only every two years

There is nothing more exiting for a football fan to see his national team performing in a major tournament on their quest to secure wins, honor and ultimate glory. In Europe, each two years people in millions slam bars, public-viewing areas or whatever spot they can grab to watch the epic and more or less epic battles of their countries on television. Excitement and blood-pressure is fatally high, joy and despair are close and some would argue that even birth rates rise nine months after such an event. While this is yet another story to tell, I'd like to make the case for getting a little bit of that excitement and despair into the two years that preceed such an event.

Why the Euro and World Cup qualifiers need to be modified. 

Now, first of all, I completely understand the current modus of competing the qualifiers. Top teams in Europe are seeded, with one opponent in the group to have an eye on, and up to four other teams, which the most exciting thing about is the return journey home from an away-game. This current system not only favours, but also protects the big nations and secures almost always a spot at a major tournament, with exceptions proving the rule. Probably this protective system is due to economic reasons: no one would benefit from a big nation ruled out of a major championship, neither the federation in question, nor UEFA or FIFA, nor a big bunch of greedy sponsors, nor the fans, nor the country, absolutely no none.

Don't get me wrong on the following points of view. Everyone, including me, prefers a World Cup quarter-final Germany vs. England over, no offence intended, Armenia vs. Latvia. But how about making the qualifiers a slightly more challenging affair for UEFA teams and ultimately much more exciting for fans? For fans and broadcasters of the big nations, the current modus of nearly two years of qualifying has one, maybe two highlights: The home and away game to the second-seeded team. Usually, even those encounters lack of excitement as most of the big decisions are usually settled beforehand. Just look at the current qualifiers and check the groups of England, Spain, Netherlands, Italy and Germany. There is no more excitement in that. And excitement is something we should introduce to the qualifiers. How to do that? Well, I'd make the case for two solutions:

Solution one (less revolutionary): Copying from other associations

In North and Central America, Asia and Africa, the lowest-seeded teams play knock-out fixtures with the winner being allowed to join the big folk in group stages. Why not adopting such a scheme for UEFA? What implications would that have?

If say, Lichtenstein, San Marino, Luxemburg, Andorra, Kazahkstan, Azerbaijan, Färöer and whoever else, would play the same kind of knock-out fixtures, I see two immediate consequences: First, more competition among them with the prospect of actually winning something and getting a well-deserved reward, and second, less painful trips for big nations and less games against those countries, where the only excitement is 'how much to zero' the team is going to win. No fan, broadcaster, sponsor has a real interest in such qualifying games. Not even the teams themselves. I don't argue that small teams don't belong into the qualifiers, not at all, but I see them as major obstacle for qualifier excitement with fans and broadcasters in the big nations. So why not let them play first among themselves to choose the winner who joins the big folk?

Solution two (more revolutionary): less groups, more teams per group

Let's say we would have 4 groups with 8 teams each. That would mean 32 federations covered. The lower-seeded teams could play knock-out games as explained above, maybe with more than one round or even through small groups stages as well. A total of four qualifying groups accounts for four top-seeded teams and, hence, interesting clashes between at least two of the bigger nations. Let's assume the first four teams qualify would qualify for the final tournament. Of course, some adjustments concerning the World Cup needed to be made as UEFA usually gets 13 slots. The host is usually qualified anyway so 4x4 wouldn't work. Say first three teams (12 in total), plus one or two through play-off rounds of the teams ranked 4th. I know this sounds rather complicated, but just think of a group Germany, Italy, France, Denmark, Serbia, Bosnia, Ukraine and Scotland! Get my point? I'd totally warm up to that idea, although I can't imagine that readers from Edinburgh and Glasgow share my point.

Now I understand some counter-arguments against that solution: It's doesn't fit into the UEFA and FIFA calendar and some people might say that decisions on who qualifies are settled beforehand as well, just like nowadays, as the strongest teams will grab the spots in question without problems. I completely agree with that point, but's it's not about creating existential threats for the big nations at all, it's just about spicing up things a little. And the likes of Scotland usually perform better against big nations as against the smaller ones, so they will run for their lives for sure and put up some decent fights. The whole mathematical process of rounds, of splitting up seeded teams, might be a fair point, too, although I'd be surprised if there no solution to this problem existed. Someone with more leisure time and more mathematical knowledge than I can perform some of their magic and get this done. And, last but not least, I can't imagine fans of smaller nations warming up to the idea either as their prospect of qualifying doesn't increase at all. They might have their domestic league's champion get lost in the Champions League though, thanks to the mercy of Monsieur Platini.

So now Mr.Platini: you have your Oletul Galatis, Pilsens, Bate Borisovs, Copenhaguens and APOELs Give us Germany vs. England, Spain v. Portugal and Netherlands v. France in return! Such a new modus would provide fans on the whole with more excitement when, for example, such prestigious and thrilling games like the ones above are played not as a friendlies in mid-November, but with actually three points to win for real. Broadcasters would benefit from bigger audiences and more lucrative advertisement revenues with more money in their pockets at the end of the day and all that. And, ultimately, and that's my main concern: the qualifiers would be brought back to the fan's hearts, and the fans back to actually sit in front of the tele, enjoying some decent qualifying clashes with a little sweat on their foreheads, with rising blood-pressure and, towards the end of the process, grim satisfaction, pure joy ... or ultimate despair!


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